Divorce Probability Calculator
An estimate of divorce risk from demographic factors that researchers have linked to divorce. It doesn't know your marriage, only your stats.
- Estimated lifetime divorce risk
- Factors raising and lowering it
- Based on U.S. research
What affects divorce risk?
Research from the CDC and others links several factors to higher divorce rates: marrying as a teenager, not having a college degree, a previous divorce, and having children before marriage. A 2015 study of U.S. couples found that dating longer before engagement was linked to lower divorce rates.
What is the divorce rate?
The CDC recorded 2.4 divorces per 1,000 people in 2022, down from the early 1980s. Researchers estimate that 40% to 50% of first marriages end in divorce. See the full divorce rate guide.
Lowering your risk
The research factors are fixed once you're married. What you do is not. Take the Relationship Test together, and read how long to date before marriage.
Frequently asked questions
What is the divorce rate in the U.S.?
About 2.4 per 1,000 people per year as of 2022. Lifetime estimates for first marriages are around 40% to 50%.
What age at marriage has the lowest divorce rate?
Research suggests the late 20s to early 30s.
Do second marriages fail more?
Yes. Second marriages have higher divorce rates than first marriages.